guitmusic11 (October 11, 2008 at 7:57 pm)

There's different "levels" of probability to be dealt with on the issue of global warming. Is the earth cooling, then if it is is it a result of human actions, then if it is a result of human actions, what is the probability that the impacts would be as large as some have projected.Under this logic, we could end up with a distorted probability.What we have to do is accept that the connection between each "level" results in a different curve on the next level.

guitmusic11 (October 11, 2008 at 7:48 pm)

I'm sad to say It but I believe I see a flaw in your risk analysis.The analogy of a lottery ticket just isn't going to cut it. When you deal with real world policy and implications of disasters you have to look at it from a mildly different perspective. You can't just keep multiplying probabilities until you've accounted for all possible variables and levels. You also shouldn't grant 100% impacts either.... cont'd

playwfire (October 11, 2008 at 6:01 pm)

yes - I LOVE IT. Love the challange, the issues and the comments. Your students are lucky to have you.

Agasajo (October 10, 2008 at 3:15 am)

and i wouldn't like to be sitting at your table

Agasajo (October 10, 2008 at 3:11 am)

you would be a pretty good poker player ^^

wonderingmind42 (October 9, 2008 at 4:17 am)

Dude...that's because I AM an idiot wearing hats and trying to save the world.

theannoyingdogpoo (October 8, 2008 at 10:17 pm)

You look like an idiot wearing this hat and trying to save the world.

Gauphastus (October 4, 2008 at 11:26 pm)

I still can't believe it's not butter.

tkdbandguy (October 3, 2008 at 12:03 am)

i cant believe i watched this whole video

ted77756 (September 25, 2008 at 8:35 pm)

I hope global warming is Gaussian.In other words, I hope we can base info on the "Land of Oz". Where if it rains on Saturday and Sunday, it has a consistent probability of no rain by a number that does not fluctuate.With climate issues there may not always be this relationship if it is acid rain. Or maybe that might hold.In general, I guess we can assume that the data will follow Gaussian Statistic.(Boy would I look stupid, if that's thenext topic.)